Prepared for Jackie, General Manager, Canberra Rex HotelAs of 16 September 2026
Canberra Rex Hotel — Rate Position Review
The far-window rates are the problem. The next step is a controlled pricing test, with bookings measured by night.
16–30 September 2026, every night · Booking.com, rendered-browser collection
The position in one line
Rex ranks at the 65th percentile on guest score, but averages the 59th on price across the 13 bookable nights.
Price percentile means the share of the competitive set priced below Rex that night.
Excluding the two remnant nights (18 and 22 Sep), the price average is the 52nd percentile and Rex’s average rate is $219 against a competitive median of $217 — at market, not above it. Guest-score percentile means the share of the competitive set with a lower Booking.com review score than Rex’s 8.6.
Three findings
The far window is the leak
Nights more than 8 days out average the 36th price percentile. On 6 of 6 far-window nights, a majority of priced direct peers sit above Rex. The composition matters: on those nights an average of 4.3 of the peers above Rex carry a lower guest score than Rex, and 1 a higher one; Deco Hotel (9.0) sits below Rex with free cancellation on 25, 29 and 30 Sep. On a like-for-like non-refundable basis only 1.7 peers sit above Rex per night, against 3.7 flexible peers — part of the gap is a terms gap, not a price gap.
Far-window offers visible to guests
Night
Rex
Peers above / priced
Highest-priced direct peers
Fri
$220
5 / 7
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $360 Mercure Canberra $325 QT Canberra $310
Sat
$234
6 / 9
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $354 Mercure Canberra $315 QT Canberra $308
Sun
$161
3 / 5
Avenue Hotel Canberra $224 QT Canberra $173 Mercure Canberra $162
Mon
$171
7 / 9
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $274 Avenue Hotel Canberra $231 Peppers Gallery Hotel $206
Tue
$212
5 / 8
Mercure Canberra $353 Avenue Hotel Canberra $341 Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $315
Wed
$212
6 / 9
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $320 Avenue Hotel Canberra $288 Novotel Canberra $265
The displayed terms weaken the offer
From 21 Sep, Rex displays a non-refundable rate. Most priced direct peers offer free cancellation on 9 of these 10 nights. The count of flexible peers priced above Rex varies by night; the terms are not equivalent.
Cancellation comparison by night
Night
Rex terms
Free-cancellation peers / priced
Flexible peers above Rex
Mon
Non-refundable
4 / 7
2
Tue
Non-refundable
4 / 8
1
Wed
Non-refundable
6 / 7
4
Thu
Non-refundable
4 / 7
2
Fri
Non-refundable
5 / 7
3
Sat
Non-refundable
6 / 9
4
Sun
Non-refundable
3 / 5
2
Mon
Non-refundable
7 / 9
6
Tue
Non-refundable
5 / 8
3
Wed
Non-refundable
6 / 9
4
The near-window highs are inventory remnants
18 Sep shows King Room with Balcony at $290, with 2 left; 22 Sep shows an unrecorded room type at $386, with 1 left. These are the remaining displayed offers, not evidence that the lead-in room has achieved a strong rate. On 22 Sep the market itself spikes (upper quartile $305), so that figure is last-room pricing rather than an artefact; both nights are excluded from the ex-remnant averages. The near-window average is the 79th percentile; the far-window average is the 36th.
Like-for-like terms
Rex’s displayed far-window rate is non-refundable; most direct peers display a free-cancellation rate at a higher price. Rex’s flexible rate is not displayed on Booking.com and was not observed, so the targets below assume the displayed rate is Rex’s lowest offer. Displaying the flexible plan is the first action on every far-window night; a further raise is warranted only where the flexible rate then sits below the flexible-peer median.
The decision
Recommendation: apply the five raises, hold the rest, and resolve the three conditional nights against actual bookings and the standard King’s displayed rate.
Night-by-night decision · AUD
Night
Current
Action
Recommended
Rationale
Wed
—
Closed
—
Not listed on Booking.com. No action available.
Thu
—
Closed
—
Not listed on Booking.com. No action available.
Fri
$290
Hold
$290
Displayed room is King Room with Balcony, 2 left; the lead-in King is not displayed, so the balcony room is the lowest offer shown. Remnant inventory — hold.
Sat
$267
Hold
$267
Rex at the 75th percentile with the lead-in King displayed. Hold.
Sun
$189
Conditional
$175
94th percentile on a soft Sunday (median $161); only 2 of 7 peers above. If under ~70% booked by Friday, reduce to $175.
Mon
$226
Hold
$226
Rex at the 64th percentile against a 65th target. At the base assumptions the model shows a raise losing money on this night. The displayed $226 is non-refundable and the flexible plan is not displayed. Hold the rate; display the flexible plan.
Tue
$386
Hold
$386
1 room left at $386 on a night the market itself spikes (upper quartile $305). Last-room pricing, not a remnant artefact. Hold.
Wed
$294
Raise
$320
6 King rooms left at $294 with 5 of 7 peers above; peer median $325, market upper quartile $329; the highest market median of any bookable night ($289). Upside is capped by the 6-room allotment.
Thu
$228
Hold
$228
73rd percentile, at peer median $225. Hold.
Fri
$220
Conditional
$220
The displayed $220 is the accessible King (5 left); the standard King is not displayed and may already sit above $220. Check the standard King’s rate before any change: if it is below $269, raise it — do not reprice the accessible room.
Sat
$234
Raise
$299
33rd percentile; 6 of 9 peers above; market upper quartile $314. Like-for-like, 2 non-refundable peers sit above Rex; the 4 flexible peers above are mostly lower-scored brands. Display the flexible plan first and raise only if it sits below the flexible-peer median.
Sun
$161
Conditional
$175
Rex at the 50th percentile with Avenue at $224. Raise to $175 only if pickup supports it.
Mon
$171
Raise
$205
29th percentile — lowest of the window; 7 of 9 peers above; peer median $196. Like-for-like, 1 non-refundable peer sit above Rex; the 6 flexible peers above are mostly lower-scored brands. Display the flexible plan first and raise only if it sits below the flexible-peer median.
Tue
$212
Raise
$259
32nd percentile; Mercure $353, Avenue $341, Crowne $315 above; peer median $273. Like-for-like, 2 non-refundable peers sit above Rex; the 3 flexible peers above are mostly lower-scored brands. Display the flexible plan first and raise only if it sits below the flexible-peer median.
Wed
$212
Raise
$243
35th percentile; 6 of 9 peers above; midweek. Like-for-like, 2 non-refundable peers sit above Rex; the 4 flexible peers above are mostly lower-scored brands. Display the flexible plan first and raise only if it sits below the flexible-peer median.
For the 121-room assumption, the supplied model gives a 60.7% chance of a positive fortnight result. These are scenario outcomes, not promised revenue.
Probable
+$1,279
Middle model outcome over the fortnight
Potential ceiling
+$17,685
Assumes guests do not react to higher rates
Downside
−$4,439
Lower-tail model outcome
The fortnight cannot move the year. The annual model’s change spans −$8,043 at the lower tail, +$206,252 at the midpoint and +$438,257 at the upper tail. In that model the difference arises from replacing the observed night-to-night variability in Rex’s relative price with a steady position; it is a property of the model’s structure, not a measured outcome. The fortnight’s purpose is to measure price sensitivity, which decides whether the annual figure is real.