The far-window rates are the problem. The next step is a controlled pricing test, with bookings measured by night.
16–30 September 2026, every night · Booking.com search pages, rendered in a browser and captured in full, one page per stay-night
The position in one line
Rex ranks at the 65th percentile on guest score, but averages the 59th on price across the 13 bookable nights.
Price percentile means the share of the competitive set priced below Rex that night.
Excluding the 2 last-room nights (18 Sep, 22 Sep), the price average is the 52nd percentile and Rex’s average rate is $219 against a competitive median of $217 — at market, not above it. Guest-score percentile means the share of the competitive set with a lower Booking.com review score than Rex’s 8.6.
Re-issued 18 September 2026: the room count is set to 122 (the original issue modelled 121 and 157 as a disputed figure); the fortnight simulation was recomputed at 122 rooms with a fixed random seed, so its scenario percentiles differ slightly from the original issue; the annual scenario is the original 121-room distribution scaled to 122 rooms. Observations, actions and rationales are unchanged.
Three findings
The far window is the leak
Nights more than 8 days out average the 36th price percentile against the 65th target. On 6 of 6 far-window nights, a majority of priced direct peers sit above Rex. The composition matters: across the far-window nights an average of 4.3 of the peers above Rex carry a lower guest score than Rex and 1 a higher one (peers without a score are not counted); Deco Hotel Canberra (9.0) sits below Rex with free cancellation on 25 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep. Among peers that, like Rex, show no free-cancellation badge, only 1.7 sit above Rex per night, against 3.7 peers showing free cancellation — part of the gap is a terms gap, not a price gap.
Far-window offers visible to guests
Night
Rex
Peers above / priced
Highest-priced direct peers
Fri
$220
5 / 7
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $360 Mercure Canberra $325 QT Canberra $310
Sat
$234
6 / 9
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $354 Mercure Canberra $315 QT Canberra $308
Sun
$161
3 / 5
Avenue Hotel Canberra $224 QT Canberra $173 Mercure Canberra $162
Mon
$171
7 / 9
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $274 Avenue Hotel Canberra $231 Peppers Gallery Hotel $206
Tue
$212
5 / 8
Mercure Canberra $353 Avenue Hotel Canberra $341 Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $315
Wed
$212
6 / 9
Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $320 Avenue Hotel Canberra $288 Novotel Canberra $265
The displayed terms weaken the offer
On 10 of the 13 bookable nights (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep), Rex displays a price with no free-cancellation badge; on 9 of them the card shows a struck-through original price with the displayed price about 15% below it. Most priced direct peers offer free cancellation on 9 of these 10 nights. The count of flexible peers priced above Rex varies by night; the terms are not equivalent.
Cancellation comparison by night
Night
Rex terms
Free-cancellation peers / priced
Flexible peers above Rex
Mon
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $266
4 / 7
2
Tue
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $454
4 / 8
1
Wed
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $346
6 / 7
4
Thu
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $268
4 / 7
2
Fri
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $259
5 / 7
3
Sat
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $275
6 / 9
4
Sun
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $189
3 / 5
2
Mon
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $201
7 / 9
6
Tue
No free cancellation shown · no promotion shown
5 / 8
3
Wed
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $249
6 / 9
4
The last-room nights
18 Sep shows King Room with Balcony at $290, with 2 left; 22 Sep shows King Suite at $386, with 1 left. These are last-room offers, not evidence that the lead-in room has achieved a strong rate, and they are excluded from the last-room-adjusted averages. The near-window average is the 79th percentile including them and the 72nd without them; the far-window average is the 36th.
Like-for-like terms
On 5 of the 6 priced far-window nights Rex’s displayed rate shows no free-cancellation badge and is a 15% promotional discount off a struck-through original price; most direct peers display free cancellation, and most of the peers priced above Rex are on flexible terms. Rex’s flexible rate is not displayed on Booking.com and was not observed, so the targets below assume the displayed rate is Rex’s lowest offer. Displaying the flexible plan is the first action on each of the 4 far-window raise nights; a further raise is warranted only where the flexible rate then sits below the flexible-peer median.
The decision
Recommendation: apply the 5 raises, hold the rest, and resolve the 3 conditional nights against actual bookings and the standard King’s displayed rate.
Night-by-night decision · AUD
Night
Current
Action
Recommended
Rationale
Wed
—
Closed
—
Not listed on Booking.com. No action available.
Thu
—
Closed
—
Not listed on Booking.com. No action available.
Fri
$290
Hold
$290
Displayed room is King Room with Balcony, 2 left; the lead-in King is not displayed, so the balcony room is the lowest offer shown. Last-room offer — hold.
Sat
$267
Hold
$267
Rex at the 75th percentile with the lead-in King displayed. Hold. 16 competitive rates returned on 19 and 27 Sep; 27–33 on the other bookable nights. The unavailable share on these two nights most likely reflects a partial page load, not demand.
Sun
$189
Conditional
$175
94th percentile on a soft Sunday (median $161); only 2 of 7 peers above. If under ~70% booked by Friday, reduce to $175.
Mon
$226
Hold
$226
Rex at the 64th percentile against a 65th target. At the base assumptions (122 rooms, 72% occupancy, elasticity −0.9) raising to the $239 target reduces revenue by $87 on this night. The displayed $226 shows no free-cancellation badge (a 15% discount off a struck-through $266) and the flexible plan is not displayed. Hold the rate; display the flexible plan.
Tue
$386
Hold
$386
1 room left at $386 on a night the market itself spikes (upper quartile $305). Last-room pricing, not a remnant artefact. Hold.
Wed
$294
Raise
$320
6 King rooms left at $294 with 5 of 7 peers above; the highest market median of any bookable night ($289). Set at $320 — above the $314 target, toward the $325 peer median and $329 upper quartile. Upside is capped by the 6-room allotment.
Thu
$228
Hold
$228
73rd percentile, at peer median $225. Hold.
Fri
$220
Conditional
$220
The displayed $220 is the accessible King (5 left); the standard King is not displayed and may already sit above $220. Check the standard King’s rate before any change: if it is below $269, raise it — do not reprice the accessible room.
Sat
$234
Raise
$305
33rd percentile; 6 of 9 peers above; market upper quartile $314; target $305. Display the flexible plan first; the target applies to the displayed lowest rate and should be re-checked against flexible peers once the flexible plan is visible.
Sun
$161
Conditional
$175
Rex at the 50th percentile with Avenue at $224. $175 sits above the $167 target and the $173 upper quartile because the night’s competitive sample is thin (16 rates) and Avenue holds $224; raise to $175 only if pickup supports it. 16 competitive rates returned on 19 and 27 Sep; 27–33 on the other bookable nights. The unavailable share on these two nights most likely reflects a partial page load, not demand.
Mon
$171
Raise
$205
29th percentile — lowest of the window; 7 of 9 peers above; peer median $196. Like-for-like, 1 peer without a free-cancellation badge sits above Rex; the 6 free-cancellation peers above are mostly lower-scored brands. Display the flexible plan first; the target applies to the displayed lowest rate and should be re-checked against flexible peers once the flexible plan is visible.
Tue
$212
Raise
$259
32nd percentile; Mercure $353, Avenue $341, Crowne $315 above; peer median $273. Like-for-like, 2 peers without a free-cancellation badge sit above Rex; the 3 free-cancellation peers above are mostly lower-scored brands. Display the flexible plan first; the target applies to the displayed lowest rate and should be re-checked against flexible peers once the flexible plan is visible.
Wed
$212
Raise
$243
35th percentile; 6 of 9 peers above; midweek. Like-for-like, 2 peers without a free-cancellation badge sit above Rex; the 4 free-cancellation peers above are mostly lower-scored brands. Display the flexible plan first; the target applies to the displayed lowest rate and should be re-checked against flexible peers once the flexible plan is visible.
For the 122-room assumption, the supplied model gives a 60.1% chance of a positive fortnight result. These are scenario outcomes, not promised revenue.
Median outcome
+$1,071
Middle model outcome over the fortnight
Potential ceiling
+$16,231
Assumes guests do not react to higher rates
Downside
−$4,166
Lower-tail model outcome
The fortnight cannot move the year. The annual model’s change spans −$8,109 at the lower tail, +$207,957 at the midpoint and +$441,879 at the upper tail. In that model the difference arises from replacing the observed night-to-night variability in Rex’s relative price with a steady position; it is a property of the model’s structure, not a measured outcome. Annual scenario as supplied with the 16 September review, scaled proportionally to 122 rooms. The fortnight’s purpose is to measure price sensitivity, which decides whether the annual figure is real.