Rex sits close to its quality position; the far-window raises are small. The next step is a controlled pricing test, with bookings measured by night.
18 September – 2 October 2026, every night · Booking.com search pages, rendered in a browser and captured in full, one page per stay-night
The position in one line
Rex ranks at the 65th percentile on guest score, but averages the 62nd on price across the 13 bookable nights.
Price percentile means the share of the competitive set priced below Rex that night.
Excluding the 3 last-room nights (23 Sep, 1 Oct, 2 Oct), the price average is the 51st percentile and Rex’s average rate is $210 against a competitive median of $208 — at market, not above it. Guest-score percentile means the share of the competitive set with a lower Booking.com review score than Rex’s 8.6.
Three findings
The far window sits near target
Nights more than 8 days out average the 62nd price percentile against the 65th target. On 3 of 6 far-window nights, a majority of priced direct peers sit above Rex. The composition matters: across the far-window nights an average of 3 of the peers above Rex carry a lower guest score than Rex and 0.7 a higher one (peers without a score are not counted); no higher-scored direct peer sits below Rex with free cancellation in the far window. Among peers that, like Rex, show no free-cancellation badge, only 1.5 sit above Rex per night, against 2.2 peers showing free cancellation — part of the gap is a terms gap, not a price gap.
Far-window offers visible to guests
Night
Rex
Peers above / priced
Highest-priced direct peers
Sun
$157
7 / 9
Avenue Hotel Canberra $224 Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $204 QT Canberra $193
Mon
$171
4 / 6
Avenue Hotel Canberra $224 Mercure Canberra $220 Hotel Kurrajong Canberra $217
Tue
$211
6 / 8
QT Canberra $365 Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $317 Mercure Canberra $298
Wed
$237
3 / 8
Avenue Hotel Canberra $288 QT Canberra $285 Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $280
Thu
$283
2 / 8
Avenue Hotel Canberra $320 QT Canberra $309 Crowne Plaza Canberra by IHG $275
Fri
$459
0 / 7
QT Canberra $419 Mantra MacArthur Hotel $395 Novotel Canberra $349
The displayed terms weaken the offer
On 10 of the 13 bookable nights (19 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep, 1 Oct, 2 Oct), Rex displays a price with no free-cancellation badge; on 9 of them the card shows a struck-through original price with the displayed price about 15% below it. Most priced direct peers offer free cancellation on 5 of these 10 nights. The count of flexible peers priced above Rex varies by night; the terms are not equivalent.
Cancellation comparison by night
Night
Rex terms
Free-cancellation peers / priced
Flexible peers above Rex
Sat
No free cancellation shown · no promotion shown
1 / 7
1
Thu
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $257
4 / 6
2
Fri
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $253
5 / 8
2
Sat
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $265
5 / 9
3
Sun
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $185
4 / 9
3
Mon
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $201
4 / 6
3
Tue
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $248
4 / 8
3
Wed
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $279
4 / 8
2
Thu
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $333
5 / 8
2
Fri
No free cancellation shown · 15% off a struck-through $540
3 / 7
0
The last-room nights
23 Sep shows Suite with Steam Room at $476, with 2 left; 1 Oct shows Twin Room at $283, with 2 left; 2 Oct shows King Suite at $459, with 1 left. These are last-room offers, not evidence that the lead-in room has achieved a strong rate, and they are excluded from the last-room-adjusted averages. The near-window average is the 62nd percentile including them and the 55th without them; the far-window average is the 62nd.
Like-for-like terms
On 6 of the 6 priced far-window nights Rex’s displayed rate shows no free-cancellation badge and is a 15% promotional discount off a struck-through original price; most direct peers display free cancellation, and most of the peers priced above Rex are on flexible terms. Rex’s flexible rate is not displayed on Booking.com and was not observed, so the targets below assume the displayed rate is Rex’s lowest offer. Displaying the flexible plan is the first action on each of the 3 far-window raise nights; a further raise is warranted only where the flexible rate then sits below the flexible-peer median.
The decision
Recommendation: apply the 3 raises, hold the rest, and resolve the 4 conditional nights against actual bookings and the standard King’s displayed rate.
Night-by-night decision · AUD
Night
Current
Action
Recommended
Rationale
Fri
—
Closed
—
No Rex rate was displayed in the city search for this night at capture. Market median $185, upper quartile $219. Canberra Rex Hotel was not listed in the Booking.com city search for this night at capture (no rate displayed).
Sat
$231
Conditional
$269
37th percentile against a 65th target; 5 of 7 direct peers above; peer median $274. Like-for-like, 4 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 1 free-cancellation peer sit above Rex. No free-cancellation badge is shown. Within 8 days of arrival: lift toward $269 only if pickup allows; otherwise hold.
Sun
$185
Hold
$185
87th percentile against a 65th target; 2 of 8 direct peers above; peer median $175. Like-for-like, 0 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 2 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. Free cancellation is shown. At or above the target; hold.
Mon
$254
Hold
$254
84th percentile against a 65th target; 4 of 7 direct peers above; peer median $255. Like-for-like, 3 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 1 free-cancellation peer sit above Rex. Free cancellation is shown. At or above the target; hold.
Tue
—
Closed
—
No Rex rate was displayed in the city search for this night at capture. Market median $264, upper quartile $328. Canberra Rex Hotel was not listed in the Booking.com city search for this night at capture (no rate displayed).
Wed
$476
Hold
$476
100th percentile against a 65th target; 0 of 5 direct peers above; peer median $365. Like-for-like, 0 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 0 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. Free cancellation is shown. 2 rooms left on the displayed category: last-room pricing; hold.
Thu
$218
Conditional
$243
52nd percentile against a 65th target; 3 of 6 direct peers above; peer median $229. Like-for-like, 1 peer without a free-cancellation badge and 2 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $257. Within 8 days of arrival: lift toward $243 only if pickup allows; otherwise hold.
Fri
$215
Conditional
$269
40th percentile against a 65th target; 4 of 8 direct peers above; peer median $239. Like-for-like, 2 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 2 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $253. Within 8 days of arrival: lift toward $269 only if pickup allows; otherwise hold.
Sat
$225
Conditional
$269
31st percentile against a 65th target; 6 of 9 direct peers above; peer median $229. Like-for-like, 3 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 3 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $265. Within 8 days of arrival: lift toward $269 only if pickup allows; otherwise hold.
Sun
$157
Raise
$179
35th percentile against a 65th target; 7 of 9 direct peers above; peer median $176. Like-for-like, 4 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 3 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $185. Set at $179, the 65th-percentile rate; modelled gain at the base assumptions $175.
Mon
$171
Raise
$195
38th percentile against a 65th target; 4 of 6 direct peers above; peer median $206. Like-for-like, 1 peer without a free-cancellation badge and 3 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $201. Set at $195, the 65th-percentile rate; modelled gain at the base assumptions $161.
Tue
$211
Raise
$241
39th percentile against a 65th target; 6 of 8 direct peers above; peer median $268. Like-for-like, 3 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 3 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $248. Set at $241, the 65th-percentile rate; modelled gain at the base assumptions $281.
Wed
$237
Hold
$237
68th percentile against a 65th target; 3 of 8 direct peers above; peer median $220. Like-for-like, 1 peer without a free-cancellation badge and 2 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $279. At or above the target; hold.
Thu
$283
Hold
$283
94th percentile against a 65th target; 2 of 8 direct peers above; peer median $237. Like-for-like, 0 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 2 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $333. 2 rooms left on the displayed category: last-room pricing; hold.
Fri
$459
Hold
$459
97th percentile against a 65th target; 0 of 7 direct peers above; peer median $318. Like-for-like, 0 peers without a free-cancellation badge and 0 free-cancellation peers sit above Rex. The displayed price is 15% off a struck-through $540. 1 room left on the displayed category: last-room pricing; hold.
For the 122-room assumption, the supplied model gives a 62.9% chance of a positive fortnight result. These are scenario outcomes, not promised revenue.
Median outcome
+$582
Middle model outcome over the fortnight
Potential ceiling
+$6,676
Assumes guests do not react to higher rates
Downside
−$1,640
Lower-tail model outcome
The fortnight cannot move the year. The annual model’s change spans −$8,109 at the lower tail, +$207,957 at the midpoint and +$441,879 at the upper tail. In that model the difference arises from replacing the observed night-to-night variability in Rex’s relative price with a steady position; it is a property of the model’s structure, not a measured outcome. Annual scenario carried from the 16 September review and scaled proportionally to 122 rooms; it is not re-derived from this census. The fortnight’s purpose is to measure price sensitivity, which decides whether the annual figure is real.